Tuesday, 26. April 2011 7:00
The British quality newspaper The Guardian dedicated the week from 21st to 26th of March to… France. A very kind initiative, or so it first seemed when I heard this information at breakfast time on France Inter.
“New Europe” is a weekly series of articles dedicated to Britain’s continental neighbours, apparently motivated by the wish to build a bridge over the Channel. In the case of France, the initiative looked more like an exercise of autosuggestion… Falling in the trap of stereotypes, several articles try to convince the readers that the French are respectable people despite their rudeness, strikes, pills, sexism, and even “failure to wash”.
However, one article starts with this assertion: “The French distrust us”. Distrust and dislike is indeed a historical feature of the relations between the peoples of France and Great Britain, explained by the two countries’ many shared (demographic, economic, geographic) characteristics as well as by their traditional divides on European integration and defence, attitudes towards the United States and foreign interventions – to name but just a few.
Following a rapprochement on European defence initiated 15 years ago by Britain and France at Saint-Malo, the two countries have recently seemed to abandon their respective long-time bros (Germany on the one hand, America on the other) in favour of a bilateral long-term commitment that’s putting the rest of diplomatic alliances in the shade. Since November 2010, it has been repeated in the media, in political discourses as well as in the treaty, that France and Britain share a common (strategic) vision and that no situation is envisaged where the national interest of one party would be threatened without that of the other party being at stake. Trust and friendship thus seem to characterise high-level relations between the two countries. Still, the profound split between Paris and London over Iraq was less than a decade ago. At the time, the French Minister of foreign affairs (Dominique de Villepin) asserted:
“To those who choose the use of force and think that they can resolve the complexity of the world by a rapid and preventive action, we oppose a long-term determined action.”
In 2003, France was seating on the side of Germany, opposing the UK, the US, Spain and Italy, and advocated negotiations rather than military intervention. Now,what if France had opposed intervention in Libya in 2011? The circumstances of intervention in Iraq and in Libya are of course very different (be it only regarding the UN resolution), but if the present agreement between London and Paris on Libya has somewhat buried Iraq, a future divergence over foreign intervention could in turn bury Libya. Today, the risk is limited. The Anglo-French relationship has not been one of fierce opposition since the end of Gaullism, and even less so since the end of Thatcherism. Plus, since Nicolas Sarkozy came to power, the French strategic posture towards the “Anglo-Saxon” world has shifted, the President being even called “the American” in the US. Indeed, he built a close relationship with George W. Bush, proceeded to the return of France in NATO’s integrated command and Wikileaks recently revealed that he disagreed with the French “excessive” position over Iraq.
Just as diplomatic proximity between Britain and France was getting more concrete, Paris and Berlin started to fall out of love. France and Germany used to be the drivers of the development of European security and defence tools and policies. But today, Germany is being criticised (including by France) for refusing to intervene in Libya, and even accused to “sink European defence”. Of course, Paris-Berlin is still the main economic axis in the European Union, and the ties between France and Germany are too strong to break over Libya, but criticism against Berlin’s refusal to use force is reaching new heights.
Looking at the dark side of things, France’s recent diplomatic reorientation highlights the fact that national interests, and the decisions made to preserve those interests, have a tendency to shift regularly. There is a presidential election in 2012 and Sarkozy will not necessarily be re-elected. Should the Left (or a Gaullist right-wing candidate) come to power, the country might undergo a new strategic shift that could damage the Anglo-French Alliance. In the long run, the newlyweds will have to share more than stereotypes, as they have embarked on a trip where they will be flying wing to wing for the next decades.